Let’s say that you are in a SNG game where you bought in for ten dollar. First place is $45. Second place is $27. And third place is $18. (To learn more about sng tournaments, check out this article on poker odds calculator.)
It is down to the bubble and there are only four of you left. The chip leader has 7,000 in chips. You have 2,000 in chips. And the other two only got a measly 10 chips each.
You are in the big blind for 100 and the chip leader is in the small blind for 50.
Everyone folds. The chip leader decided to push all in on your big blind.
As he shove his chips in the middle, the chip leader flips over his cards by accident and you can see that he only has a seven deuce offsuit.
You look down at your hand and see that you have AK suited. According to the poker odds, your AK should win versus his 72 about 70% of the time. So clearly, you are way ahead.
Would this be a good call?
Although it might seem strange, this is a clear FOLD. Yes calling might cause you to win the SNG most often, but it will cost you a ton of money.
Yep, you know you have the best hand, but you still need to fold.
Here’s why.
Because the other two players have such short stacks (only 10 chips each), they are almost guaranteed to be knocked out. This means that just by waiting a few more hands, you will pretty much be guaranteed the $27 prize for 2nd place. Not only that, but once the short stacks are out of the picture, you still have a fair shot to win 1st place.
This means that folding will actually earn you an immediate $27 profit.
Calling, on the other hand, is not as beneficial. You risk getting knocked out and winning nothing. Not only that but you gain very little even if you do win the all in.
There are actually math calculations that I can do that will definitely show that calling will cause you to lose money in the long run.
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